Jim covered Congress and The White House during the George W. Bush administration for The Washington Times, and worked as a reporter, editorial writer and columnist for newspapers in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and California. He has appeared on the Fox News Channel, CNN, MSNBC, C-Span, and many local and national talk radio shows to talk politics and policy.
Latest posts by Jim Lakely (see all)
- Yes, New York Times Commenter Maggie Mae, ‘The Heartland’ Matters - January 9, 2017
- The Year in Climate Realism: A Review of 2016 - January 6, 2017
- Dear President-elect Trump: Don’t Listen to Ben Santer - December 28, 2016
As they come in, I’ll be posting Election Night predictions from Heartland staffers. To get things started, here are mine:
Senate: GOP 51, Dem 49
Murkowski will not come close to stealing away Joe Miller’s victory in Alaska. She will concede on Election night.
House: GOP picks up 66 seats.
Nancy Pelosi will announce she is resigning. Will not finish out last term, but a special election will be held in San Francisco by the end of 2011 to pick a new hard leftist to fill her seat.
Loretta Sanchez will win by 1 percentage point in Orange County, CA.
- GOP candidates win both governor’s seat and Obama’s old Senate seat in Illinois.
- Marco Rubio wins and immediately becomes Veep material for the GOP ticket in 2012. He wisely declines invitation, allowing himself to be seasoned and set up for presidential run in 2020.
- GOP wins gubernatorial elections in Florida and Ohio, too.
- Keith Olbermann hides under his desk in the fetal position by 9 p.m. EDT.
- Rachel Maddow calls the Tea Party racist, wonders on the air how America let the Klan take over the government.
- Chris Matthews shockingly pins the blame for this electoral disaster squarely on Obama for over-reaching, and says, on the whole, it’s a good thing for Democrats that Nancy Pelosi has been de-fanged.
- Peter Jennings, from the grave, says America has thrown another temper tantrum.
- Bill O’Reilly says the word “folks” at least 20 times in his coverage.
- Juan Williams will actually smile – but not as broadly as Brit Hume.
- I am disappointed that no one grabs that GIGANTIC GAVEL Pelosi taunted the Tea Party with on the way to vote on Obamacare and subjects it to a ritual burning — like Jimi Hendrix burning his guitar at Woodstock.
Senate: GOP picks up 8 seats.
Republicans will capture currently Democratic Senate seats in Arkansas, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but lose the close races in California, Washington and West Virginia.
House: GOP picks up 51 seats.
For me, the coming defeat of Gene Taylor (D-MS), author of a particularly awful bill that would amount to a government takeover of coastal property insurance, will prove a particularly sweet surprise. As recently as last week, I had assumed Taylor was invincible; now, I’m pretty sure he’ll be humiliated at the polls.
Despite polls that lean the other way, the bright, thoughtful, hardworking Ahn “Joseph” Cao will narrowly hold onto his seat in Louisiana’s heavily Democratic second district.
Most governor’s races, including, sadly, California’s, now have a very clear favorite who will walk away with a victory. In the closer races for governor in larger states, Democrat Alex Sink will defeat Republican Rick Scott in Florida, Republican Bill Brady will top Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in Illinois, and Republican John Kasich will beat Democrat Ted Strickland in Ohio.
Andrew Cuomo will be elected governor of New York, but he’ll have a slimmer margin of victory than most polls now predict because many upstate Rockefeller Republicans will vote for Carl Paladino rather than a downstate Democrat who is fated to win anyway.
House: GOP picks up 68 seats
- A woman will become Governor of California
- MSNBC will blame the election on George W. Bush
- Brady Quinn wins the Illinois Governorship in an unprecedented landslide
- Karl Rove will continue to be annoying in his analysis
- Paul Krugman will blame the Democrats election day losses on a “lack of spending and government intervention”
Senate: GOP 46, Dems 54
House: GOP pick up of 48
- Obama says the shift was encouragingly not as bad as many predicted.
- Chris Matthews is thrilled with marginal outcome which will allow Obama to continue his agenda.
- Harry Reid wins and praises his states voters for keeping him at the Senate helm.
- Pelosi thanks everyone for their service and says it is time to spend more time with her family.
The Republicans will pick up 70 seats in the House, but fall just short of taking the Senate as Carly Fiorina, Dino Rossi and John Raese lose their contests narrowly. That’s right, friends, get ready for six more years of Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray lighting up the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body. Joe Manchin seems to have some good instincts on education reform, even if he’s a flip-flopper on health care and no good on cap-and-trade. Take victories where you find them, and sometimes even where you don’t.
Speaking of which, Jerry Brown will win in California. His first act will be to order the immediate deportation of all uncool nieces. Brown will resolve California’s budget problems in a couple of months, leaving him plenty of time next summer to visit Iowa and New Hampshire in order to mount a 2012 primary challenge against Obama.
Prop. 19, the marijuana legalization initiative, will lose. I’m afraid Prop. 23 will meet the same fate. But I’m hopeful Prop. 26, which would extend the state’s supermajority vote requirement for taxes to fees, will squeak through. In any event, this is no way to run a republic.
Sharron Angle will win in a nailbiter in Nevada. Christine O’Donnell will lose in Delaware, but it won’t be the self-immolation the press expects or dreams about.
Reid loses in NV
Boxer wins in CA
Kirk by a hair in IL
Feingold loses in WI
Quinn loses in IL
Dold beats Seals in IL-10
Bean/Walsh too close to call in IL-8
Halverson loses to Kirzinger in IL-11
Hultgren sends Foster home in IL-14
I am most interested in the Senate races, because the Senate has to approve nominees to the Supreme Court. So, keeping my fingers crossed:
Angle will win in Nevada
Feingold will lose in Wisconsin. He ran a dishonest campaign, using lobbyists to pose in faked ads as WI residents who got supposedly got stimulus jobs here, and took huge money from out of state, after promising never to do this . I do live in WI, glad to see him go, and hope he never again has anything to say about the future of this country. Ron Johnson’s win will be cause for celebration. Sorry, Eli.
Murray will lose in Washington (I hope!)
Miller will win narrowly in Alaska.
There will be tons of lawyers involved in recounts in Nevada, Alaska, and Illinois.
With Lieberman reportedly planning to caucus with the Republicans, that should be enough to block Obama’s next uber-liberal pick for the U.S. Supreme Court.
Senate: Republicans pickup 10 seats; Reid and Murray among losers
House: Republicans pickup 71 seats; 3 House chairman lose; 2 or fewer Republicans lose House races nationwide
- Nancy Pelosi announces resignation
- President Obama declares from Indonesia that he is relevant and will in fact return to America if his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will also.
- Whoopi Goldberg and Joy Behar storm off the set until 2012.
- Big Sis Homeland Secretary Napolitano announces release of a White Paper addressing the homeland threat from newly elected House Republicans
- Nightline Announces new nightly America Under Right Siege Day 1 Wednesday night.
Senate: GOP gains 9 seats
House: GOP gains 74 seats
Senate: 49 GOP, 50 Dem, and 1 Indy
House: GOP picks up 72 seats
– This election will be described as an “anti-incumbent” election, even though most of the incumbents being kicked out of office will be Democrats.
– Meg Whitman will be the next governor of California.
– Bill Brady will be the next governor of Illinois.
– Nathan Deal will be the next governor of Georgia.
– Christine O’Donnell will win in Delaware.
– Charlie Crist will win in Florida.