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Environment/Energy

A New Climate Alarmist Scare About Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Volume

arcticseaiceLike the headache from drinking a large bottle of cheap wine, climate alarmists are back with a new scare for the planet caused by carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels — the great loss of Arctic sea ice the past few years.

We are about to be bombarded from climate alarmists with their latest news the volume of Arctic sea ice has declined by 80 percent from 1979 to the autumn of 2012. This is based on recent studies on Arctic sea ice thickness published early February 2013. The studies are by scientists using NASA satellites and underwater sonar stations to measure thickness of Arctic sea ice. Consult an article by NASA about their studies shown by this url or other NASA labeled references.

The paper states measurements have been made for two years and the data should not be used to forecast a trend.  Autumn sea ice volume in 2012 is 36 percent smaller than a few earlier years. Winter sea volume is 9 percent smaller than a few earlier years.  A large hurricane originating in Alaska swept over the North Pole in August 2012 and tore up Arctic sea ice and propelled a lot of the sea ice southward where it melted. This would make a large reduction in sea ice volume for late September 2012.

NASA reported the hurricane September 18, 2012 and mentioned this is a rare event; but they do occur every once in a while.  Since September 2012, Arctic sea ice has been restored at a record pace and by late February 2013 the sea ice extent is within 3 percent its average.

So don’t get too upset about the announcement of changes in Arctic sea ice volume.  The albedo effect of sea ice reflecting incoming sun’s radiation back to outer space in the summer has to do with the sea ice surface area; not volume.  Also remember the sun only shines in the Arctic six months of the year.  For May, June, July, and early August the sun shines 24 hours a day.  For late October through early February, the sun doesn’t shine at all in the Arctic. If you visit the Arctic in the winter, take a flashlight.

Typically Arctic sea ice ranges from a maximum of 15 million square kilometers in late March to a minimum of 4.6 million square kilometers September 16.  Thus sea ice volume has to normally be reduced by 70 percent.  Climate alarmists are trying to use something that normally happens to be construed as a problem due to carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels.

Worries about salt changes in Arctic waters due to sea ice having no salt have to be questionable.  Salt is removed from ice as it freezes and stays in the water that didn’t freeze. The volume of Arctic waters that become ice at the time of maximum sea ice extent in late March is insignificant compared to the total volume of Arctic Ocean water.

Be wary reading reports about Arctic sea ice losses from climate alarmist sources.

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— James H. Rust

James H. Rust is a policy advisor for The Heartland Institute, a retired professor of nuclear engineering, and an outspoken critic of unnecessary alarmism over man-made global warming. He funds several scholarships for students majoring in chemical engineering at Purdue University. He currently is delivering a talk titled “America's Failed Energy Policies and The Reason Why.”

  • dannyR

    Thank you for balancing the debate between global warming and warming alarmism. A false continuum between complete skepticism and the coming global thermocalypse is missing the point, although a 17 year plateau is hardly the news-copy the media are salivating for.

    Just how serious is a 3-degree rise over this century? And how much can adaptation, amelioration, etc. strategies take the burden of the concern? International economies in the 100 terabuck range over the next 50 years cannot be held hostage to alarmist agendas tilting at CO2 windmills.

  • Kevin O’Neill

    Bait and switch. The article is about sea-ice volume. Mr Rust says sea-ice extent is within 3% of normal – so nothing to worry about. But sea ice extent is NOT a measure of volume.

    Many high latitude lakes completely freeze over every winter, then melt out completely every spring. So winter maximum extent is a very poor predictor of the following year’s minima and virtually useless as a predictor of volume.

    Is this intentionally misleading. [snip]

    By the way – the article actually shows that the ‘alarmists’ have been too CONSERVATIVE in their past estimates. In fact, the consensus scientific views on arctic sea ice extent, area, and volume have been drastically underestimating the decline.

    • Frank O’Harry

      The claim that the authors of the study know the trend of the volume of sea ice from 1979 when they’ve only been measuring it since 2010 is what is intentionally misleading, Kevin. And, surprise! The extrapolated trend supports your super scary doomsday narrative. But of course, they’re “scientists,” so the appeal to authority should work on you.

      If you can show me a climate model that has accurately predicted how warming has stalled since the mid-nineties, a fact that observed temperature records seem to agree on, then maybe I can trust the abilities of your insider team of “consensus” climate scientists to accurately predict the climate in a hundred years.

      Otherwise, take your claims of being on the side of “science” back with you to thinkprogress so you can lament in your imaginary bleak future together.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1156547105 Joli Beevers

    Why aren’t people more ‘alarmed’ with how much the hurricane affected ice sea volume?

  • Frank O’Harry

    So, Gilles, measurements on ice volume have been made for two years, yet they’re using those two years — plus other NASA “data” (data from 2003 to present?) plus “scientists” (impressive) — to extrapolate back thirty-four years, and somehow the result is a threatening sounding claim that arctic ice volume has decreased 80% in 34 years?

    I’ve read plenty of scientific studies with much more impressive samples that make all kinds of astounding claims, mostly about herbal supplements. Most people develop a BS meter about claims like this.

    But keep on springing for those herbal supplements that promise to enlarge your manhood, sucker, even when reality consistently fails to live up their claims. Can you produce a past climate model that hasn’t failed to grossly exaggerate observed temperatures? Betcha can’t.