Latest posts by Joe Bastardi (see all)
- Defund Climate Change Research to Pay for Pre-Existing Conditions - May 8, 2017
- Elation and Frustration - April 5, 2017
- A Real Bet for the Tough Guy in a Bow Tie - May 6, 2016
I have stopped trying to argue with someone who refuses to look at anything but that which supports his own position. It’s pointless. So in an effort to end a debate quickly, I now politely ask individuals to explain how CO2, given how small it is relative to all around it, actually changes the entire system. That usually stops it with most of the crowd. Like many things I see with new age forecasters today, they will jump on one weather factor and not understand its behavior is because of everything around it.
The second thing I do is put the ball in their court. This requires knowing what went on historically with weather/climate. So I ask what the perfect number is for CO2 in the atmosphere. An example: Dr. Bill McKibben – one of the people I am frequently amazed with because his comments indicate he either does not know and understand what the weather has done before, or does and refuses to let that get in the way – runs a group called 350.org. He and his team want CO2 at 350 ppm (parts per million). So let’s just go to 350 ppm and see what it was like.
First, here is CO2 on the “correct” scale, which is the percentage of the atmosphere. This is not what you commonly see, which is the amount of CO2 in parts per million, where CO2 is grossly over-represented. The scale should be from one to a million, not a tiny fraction of a million.
Now, by using the very tiny increment they do, and by not informing you that if you actually used the scale from one to a million, this would hardly show up, they’re guilty of creative distortion of reality. After all, aren’t we measuring this against the entire atmosphere? Just think how absurd it would be if we measured against the *entire system: ocean plus atmosphere. The oceans play a huge role in the climate. It’s the reason for Dr. William Gray’s spot on assessment of this whole charade.
Anyway, on the graph below, the numbers on the left are in part per million. We are near 400 ppm now, and the last time it was near 350 ppm was back around 1988.
Here are just a few samples of the weather that year.
Average since then:
That was the summer all the hysteria began on the upcoming climate disaster. But what about precipitation?
What about hurricanes? What did the ACE Index look like? Gee, about the same as now.
In fact after the peak when the Pacific and Atlantic were warm in tandem, it looks like this recent downturn is lower than the late ‘80s. This may be because whenever there is a “climatic shift” (in the late 1970s the shift was to warming because the PDO turned warm; it’s now opposite), the atmosphere needs to adjust so that the processes which leads to above normal activity can readjust.
What about ice caps? Look at the Arctic when the Atlantic was in its cold mode. 1988 had much higher anomalies than now.
But the Southern Hemisphere ice anomaly is much higher than it was then! In fact, it’s trying for a record!
1988 was as low against the averages in the Southern Hemisphere (more so, it dropped to -1.5) than it is now in the Northern Hemisphere, and the forecast continues to call for Arctic sea ice extent to rise above average against the late summer minimum. This would be the first time this has happened since the Atlantic went into its warm mode.
Globally we’re well above average. Are we not supposed to consider the whole globe on this crucial matter? It was the ice caps – plural – that were supposed to melt. Could it be like almost everything in nature – a cyclical back and forth swing?
So far, the Arctic “warm season” has been colder than 1988 (last year was the coldest ever recorded).
Here it was in 1988:
The fact is, most of the “global” warming has occurred in the Arctic during the winter seasons, where temps 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal are frigid anyway. Given the amount of water vapor in such low temperatures – water vapor being the number 1 greenhouse gas (100x CO2) – it’s a stretch to think this is affecting the entire global climate against anything that can be measured against normal stochastic and cyclical events.
Now you may say, “You are cherry picking.” I can cherry pick any time and find it worse. The fact I can instantly bring up any time where weather has been more extreme says that in the past, the weather has been more extreme! We can go on forever, believe me. Here’s is another sample: How is it most of the states’ high temperatures and the greatest decade for low temperatures were in the 1930s, when CO2 was under 300 ppm?
We are not even close now. Anyone ever consider this? We have added considerably more weather stations, yet the state records set during a time with less stations than now have not been exceeded. And even though it was hotter in summer, it was colder extreme wise in winter.
Here’s a fact: CO2, like anything, has some effect on the weather and climate, probably relative to its relationship with water vapor, which is most likely influenced by the greatest store of heat (energy) to the system (and its also the greatest store of CO2) – the oceans. But can you measure it against the natural cyclical reactions driven by much greater forces and even stochastic events? Can you assign a value when every single point brought up by the AGW side can be easily countered by anyone who knows and understands what has happened in weather and climate in the past? How do you know? And given what is facing us today, is CO2’s value to the climate effectively rounded so close to zero that the whole issue is a red herring?
Look at this. The title says it all.
The answer is, you can’t.
Finally, from IPCC reviewer Dr. Vincent Gray:
Faith in things unseen defines something that is preached in religion. But with all the counter evidence here, it seems like this worship of CO2 as the climate control knob is more religion than science. I don’t force my religion on another man; why is it these folks seem to be pushing theirs on us? And like so many other religions that believe they must convert all men to their belief, this too is a recipe for widespread misery and as in most cases, disaster.
So just what is the perfect level of CO2, and who among men thinks they are fit to decide that, given the overwhelming evidence that nature is in control?
Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.
© Copyright 2014 The Patriot Post
[Originally published at The Patriot Post]