Latest posts by James H. Rust (see all)
- Hot Diggity Damn! U.S. Economy Sits Atop World Economic Forum Competitiveness Survey - October 19, 2018
- Experiencing Hurricane Michael in Georgia - October 12, 2018
- Worthless Argument 97 Percent of Climate Scientists Believe Fossil Fuels Cause Global Warming - June 26, 2017
The media is spreading catastrophic global warming news from satellite temperature data ending February 2016. On March 3, 2016, the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH) posted the February 2016 global temperature of 0.83 degrees C. surpassed the previous record of 0.74 degrees C. for April 1998. These temperatures are the difference from the 30-year average from 1981 to 2010. This is a data set from 1979 until present when satellite temperature measurements were first made.
Associated Press writer Seth Borenstein wrote March 17, 2016 ”Freakishly hot February obliterates global weather records”. New York Times reporter Justin Gillis wrote March 22, 2016 “Scientists Warn of Perilous Climate Shift Within Decades, Not Centuries”. Expect more scary stories from other writers who live off reports from the scientific community that generates climate change (global warming) information.
The University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) posted its latest satellite global temperature data that spans until the end of March 2016 shown by Fig. 1.
Fig.1 Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures
The March 2016 temperature has fallen to 0.73 degrees C which is even lower than the previous record of 0.74 degrees from April 1998. The satellite temperature data shows a temperature rise since 1979 of 0.12 degree C. per decade; or 1.2 degrees per century which places the earth’s warming below the recommended limit on global warming from the 2015 Paris Climate Accord.
Data over thousands of years show approximate 500-year cycles of planet warming and cooling. We are currently in the Current Warming Period which commenced approximately 1850. This was preceded by the Little Ice Age from approximately 1350 to 1850. Thus continued global warming should be anticipated until after the start of the 22nd. century.
SUPER EL NINO CAUSES TEMPERATURE RISE
Along the Equator stretching from New Guinea to Western South America is a region in which prevailing winds and sea surface temperatures create weather systems that impact the planet. When temperatures are warmer this creates a system called El Nino and countering cooling system is called La Nina. La Nina normally follows an El Nino. El Nino means the boy or Christ Child and this name was given because peak El Nino usually occurs around Christmas. These systems have been observed for centuries and are not caused by carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels.
An El Nino system formed in early 2015 and became a Super El Nino that caused the February 2016 global temperature that was the highest observed by satellites over their period of measurements from 1979 to present. A La Nina is expected to follow this event and the question is when this happens and how much cooling takes place.
An excellent explanation of the importance of El Nino on global temperatures is given by the March 18, 2016 Reuters article “How much clarity do we have on transition to La Nina?” by Karen Braun. The article shows graphs of monthly surface and subsurface temperatures measured along the Equator.
Fig. 2 illustrates monthly El Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures for eight El Nino events occurring since 1982/83. El Nino 3.4 designates an area 165 degrees W to 90 degrees W and 5 degrees S to 5 degrees N. Since the length of 1 degree is 69 miles at the Equator, the El Nino 3.4 area is 5200 miles by 690 miles or 3.5 million square miles.
For the temperature scale, temperatures above 0.5 degrees C. are for periods with El Nino and temperatures below -0.5 degrees C. are for periods with La Nina. If three-month average temperatures are above 0.5 degree C. (or below), then an El Nino (or La Nina) is considered in progress. Temperatures between -0.5 and 0.5 degrees are neutral.
Fig. 2 El Nino Sea Surface Temperatures
The lines are bolder for the strong El Nino over these years. As noted, the strongest El Nino prior to 2015 was the event 1997/98. In November 2015, the current El Nino sea surface temperature exceeded the maximum temperature from the 1997/98 El Nino. The current sea surface temperature has started a slight decline similar to that shown by the 1997/98 El Nino.
As seen for the 1997/98 El Nino, rapid cooling took place after the peak temperature early 1998. This resulted in a super La Nina later that year. The 2015/16 data does not show rapid cooling by the end of February 2016. However, due to the 0.11 degree C. drop in global temperature in March, 2016 shown in Fig. 1, one can infer substantial decreases in sea surface temperature are taking place.
A more recent April 7, 2016, Reuters article “Notion of a delayed La Nina might have been hasty: Braun” shows a more rapid decline in El Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature for March given by Fig. 3. This trend along with changes in prevailing winds indicates a switch to La Nina by July.
Fig. 3 Revised El Nino Sea Surface Temperatures
Perhaps a little more insight about the future of the current El Nino may be found by examining subsurface Pacific Ocean temperatures along the Equator. Fig. 3 gives monthly measured ocean subsurface temperatures along the Equator to a depth of 300 meters for the eight El Nino events. These measurements are along a greater length along the Equator shown in Fig. 2. The distance is from 130 degrees E to 80 degrees W or 10,300 miles.
Fig. 4 El Nino Subsurface Temperatures
By the end of February, the 2015/16 El Nino subsurface temperature had not turned negative; however, the lowered March temperature in Fig. 1 suggests this has taken place. The direction of this Super El Nino is similar to the one of 1997/98 and there is great chance of considerable global cooling by the end of the year.
NO GLOBAL WARMING FOR 58 YEARS
Another perspective about the 2016 global temperature is the March 7, 2016 article “NOAA Radiosonde Data Shows No Warming For 58 Years” by Tony Heller. In NOAA’s press briefing 2015 was the “hottest year ever” was a statement NOAA had a 58-year radiosonde (balloon) temperature record but only showed the last 37 years in a graph. Fig. 5 shows the graph released by NOAA.
Fig. 5 NOAA’s 37-YEAR SATELLITE AND RADIOSONDE TEMPERATURES
Tony Heller found the missing years of radiosonde data from 1958-1976 in the scientific journal article “Global Temperature Variation, Surface-100mb: An Update into 1977” in the June 1978 Monthly Weather Review. This data is shown in Fig. 5 which indicates global temperatures declined from 1958 until 1977.
Fig. 6 Temperature variation for World Surface-100MB and World Surface. Eruptions of Mt. Agung and volcano Fuego (Guatemala) are indicated
Mr. Heller combined Figs. 5 and 6 into Fig. 7 and added a horizontal red line which shows in the troposphere there has been no global warming from 1958 to 2016. Purists might complain the 1958 to 1977 data is for a region that goes from the earth’s surface to an elevation of 100 mb (54,000 ft.) while the 1979 to 2016 data is for five discrete elevations from 5000 ft. to 40,000 ft. However, the five discrete elevation data are quite similar which makes the earlier comparison valid.
Fig. 7 Radiosonde data from 1958 to 2016
The NOAA, and NASA, press release claimed 2015 was the year with the hottest global surface temperatures since measurements were made from 1880. The physics behind the behavior of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide causing warming has the warming occurring in the atmosphere from the earth’s surface to the stratosphere. Thus the true measure of the influence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is shown by satellite or radiosonde data. From the period 1958 to 2016, atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased from 315 to 402 ppm. Since no appreciable global warming is shown by atmospheric temperatures over the period 1958 to 2016, one may infer increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels has no significant influence on global warming.
DOES NOAA FUDGE DATA?
In his article, Tom Heller noticed NOAA 1958 to 2011 had two databases for radiosonde surface to atmospheric temperatures—(1) a database from 1958 to 2011and (2) a database from 1958 to 2016. The graph in Fig. 5 from the latest database shows about 0.5 degrees C warming from 1979 to 2010. However, the original 2011 database shows little warming during that period.
Fig. 8 NOAA 2016 Radiosonde Database Minus 2011 Database
Fig. 8 shows the 2011 database subtracted from the 2016 database which produces greater warming from 1992 to present and less warming from 1992 back to 1958.
Changes in NOAA global temperature databases are shown by the June 4, 2015, article published in Science that eliminated the pause or “hiatus” in global surface temperatures from 1998 to 2014. NOAA’s Director Thomas Karl said, “Adding in the last two years of global surface temperature data and other improvements in the quality of the observed record provide evidence that contradict the notion of a hiatus in recent global warming trends. Our new analysis suggests that the apparent hiatus may have been largely the result of limitations in past datasets, and that the rate of warming over the first 15 years of this century has, in fact, been as fast or faster than that seen over the last half of the 20th century.” Much controversy was generated over this study and many in the scientific community claimed it was wrong.
Texas Congressman Lamar Smith is heading a committee to investigate allegations of NOAA altering global temperature databases.
U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM REPORT
The U. S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) published an April 2006 180-page report
“Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere Steps for Understanding and
Reconciling Differences “. The report showed comparisons of vertical global temperature distributions in the atmosphere computed by Parallel Climate Models (PCM) with actual radiosonde (balloon) temperature measurements. The data is displayed with a vertical axis of altitude given on the left side as pressure in millibars and the right side in kilometers (km). The horizontal axis is latitude from 75 degrees S to 75 degrees N.
Fig. 9 All temperature changes were calculated from
monthly-mean data and are expressed as linear trends
(in ºC/decade) over 1979 to 1999.
Fig. 9 shows from altitudes 1.5 km to 9 km temperature changes are small over this 20-year interval. This provides some agreement with Tony Heller’s paper “NOAA Radiosonde Data Shows No Warming For 58 Years”.
Fig. 10 Computer modeling zonal atmospheric temperature changes
from all forcings (greenhouse gas increase dominates)
Fig. 10 (all forcings) shows calculated global atmospheric temperatures from January 1958 to December 1999. Temperatures are given by the change over this time period. Fig. 10 shows a very distinct “hot spot” from altitudes of 4 km to 16 km and latitudes from 30 degrees S to 30 degrees N. This hot spot is caused by increased greenhouse gases (mostly carbon dioxide) over that time period. The radiosonde measurements shown in Fig. 9 show no “hot spot”. This clearly indicates the models for predicting global temperature changes are wrong on how they handle additions of “greenhouse gases” (predominately carbon dioxide) to the atmosphere.
The Abstract for the CCSP report contains the following information:
“Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the surface. This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies.
….For recent decades, all current atmospheric data sets now show global-average warming that is similar to the surface warming. While these data are consistent with the results from climate models at the global scale, discrepancies in the tropics remain to be resolved. Nevertheless, the most recent observational and model evidence has increased confidence in our understanding of observed climate changes and their causes.”
The vast differences between Figs. 9 and 10 indicate calculations from models have little agreement with experiments. The U. S. CCSP has taken the position “if models don’t agree with experiments; then the experiments are wrong.” Unfortunately, most readers never go beyond the Abstract and the CCSP conclusions are considered fact.
With a considerable amount of fanfare, NOAA and NASA announced 2015 and possibly 2016 are the warmest years since recording keeping started in 1880. Their media supporters like Seth Borenstein and Justin Gillis produced scary articles circulated through the media announcing this threat to the world from carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels causing catastrophic global warming. The United States should lead the way for all nations to immediately find alternative energy sources to replace fossil fuels regardless the economic cost.
The importance of NOAA and NASA assertions is questioned by experimental data cited in this article. It is quite likely the present Super El Nino changes to a Super La Nina that brings global temperatures back to levels seen a few years ago. Will reporters like Seth Borenstein and Justin Gillis report to the public the errors of their recent assertions? I think not.
On October 5, 2009, President Obama issued an executive order, FEDERAL LEADERSHIP IN ENVIRONMENTAL, ENERGY, AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, that showed policies toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the rest of his term in office. This paper explains the motivation for climate policies from all government organizations the past 7 years. The vast waste of tax dollars and impediments to fossil fuel production may be the reason for economic stagnation in spite of the U. S. becoming the fossil fuel energy producer of the planet. A paper by Dr. James H. Rust “President Obama Demands Agreement With Climate Policies” on The Heartland Institute’s website gives examples of compliance with the Executive Order for government, education, and commercial organizations.
One of the sources of surface temperature data is the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN), which gives temperature data in the contiguous United States. Walter Dnes wrote an essay “USHCN Monthly Temperature Adjustments” which gives references 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 that describe in detail monthly adjustments to USHCN data from 1872-to-present. These adjustments made present temperatures warmer, earlier temperatures cooler, and eliminated the 1930s period of heat waves and droughts.
A January 20, 2016 paper “No Pause in NASA Climate Science Corruption” shows NASA-GISS has doubled global warming the past 15 years by altering its data over 15 years. They completely ignored satellite data.
Numerous studies show NOAA and NASA made adjustments to temperature data to show unwarranted global warming. Real Climate published a paper showing adjustments by both NOAA and NASA to U. S. and other nation’s temperature data.
The United Kingdom has been exceptional in reporting news of bogus temperature data. British journalist James Delingpole wrote the January 30, 2015 article “FORGET CLIMATEGATE: THIS ‘GLOBAL WARMING’ SCANDAL IS MUCH BIGGER” which points out the world’s three surface data sources for global temperatures have adjusted their raw data. The sources are NASA-GISS, NOAA which maintains the dataset known as the Global Historical Climate Network, and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit and Met Office data records known as Hadcrut. Mr. Delingpole found no satisfactory reasons for temperature adjustments.
A famous saying by Albert Einstein, “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” NOAA, NASA-GISS, and US-CCSP re-interpretation of this remark is “computer models are always right; no amount of experiments can prove them wrong.”
Investigations by Congress are in order to clear up discrepancies of NOAA and NASA-GISS temperature data from year-to-year and reported accuracies of climate models by groups like the CCSP.