Cold Periods, Not Warm Periods, Host Weather Extremes

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H. Sterling Burnett

Managing Editor, Environment & Climate News at The Heartland Institute

H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D. is managing editor of Environment & Climate News and a research fellow for environment and energy policy at The Heartland Institute. Burnett worked at the National Center for Policy Analysis for 18 years, most recently as a senior fellow in charge of NCPA’s environmental policy program. He has held various positions in professional and public policy organizations, including serving as a member of the Environment and Natural Resources Task Force in the Texas Comptroller’s e-Texas commission.

Latest posts by H. Sterling Burnett (see all)

• United Nations Misleads About Food Production and Climate Change - October 10, 2019
• Wealth Tames ‘Extreme’ Weather - October 9, 2019
• Trump’s ESA Changes: A Good Start - September 18, 2019

The No Tricks Zone has summarized several recent scientific reports examining extreme weather in different regions around the world. All have come to essentially the same conclusion: Current weather conditions are not extreme when compared to the past, and weather is more extreme during colder than warmer periods of time.

In a study in PLOS One, researchers examining tree ring data for the Southwestern United States found weather was much more extreme and exhibited wider swings in variability during the Little Ice Age than during the previous Medieval Warm Period. The authors conclude current climate conditions should result in less variable, extreme weather more similar to the Medieval Warm Period than the types of extreme weather anomalies predicted by climate models.

In a study in the journal Science Advances, the researchers used ice cores to reconstruct past climate conditions, determining periods with decreased carbon dioxide conditions, associated with cooler temperatures, exhibited the greatest weather instability, with extreme weather events being more prevalent and severe.

Two recent studies examined hurricanes and cyclones. One study examined cyclone activity in East Asia from 1979 through 2013, finding cyclone activity has been declining during the recent period of relative warming. The researchers determined warming to the west of Mongolia has suppressed tropical atmospheric circulation patterns weakening cyclone activity in East Asia.

A study examining the long-term hurricane history of Jamaica and the West Indies over the past 1,500 years confirms earlier research that found “hurricane activity was subdued during the [warm] Medieval Climate Anomaly (from 900 to 1350 CE) and became more pronounced during the [cold] Little Ice Age (from 1450 to 1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between 1850 and 1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (from 1950 through 2000 CE).” The study also found Jamaica suffered more frequent and severe periods of drought during the Little Ice Age than it experienced during the Medieval Warm Period or during the past century.